广州市商品房空置率的计算与分析  

Caculation and Analysis of the Vacancy Rate of Commercial House in Guangzhou

作　　者：王幼松[1] 林轶红[2] 王芳[1] 张雁[1] 

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学建筑学院亚热带建筑科学国家重点实验室,广东广州510640 [2]嘉应学院土木系,广东梅州514015

出　　处：《建筑经济》2008年第3期35-37,共3页Construction Economy

摘　　要：收集广州市2005～2006年8个季度商品房(住宅、办公楼、商业营业用房和其他用房)的空置面积与存量房统计资料,结合国内外相关研究资料,建立可行的计量分析模型,分别计算广州市各类商品房总空置率、待销空置率、滞销空置率和积压空置率。研究发现,广州市商品房的空置率从2005年初的2.13%下降到2006年末的1.60%;商品住宅市场的空置率也从1.68%降到1.16%。其中,商业营业用房的空置率相对最高,而住宅的空置率相对最低;总体上看,近两年各类型商品房的空置率都在逐步下降,而滞销空置率和积压空置率变化根据商品房类型不同,变化趋势不尽相同。因此,建议根据不同类型商品房的空置情况,采用有针对性的宏观指导对策,使广州商品房市场更加健康地发展。Eight seasons （2005-2006） statistical data of commercial houses in Guangzhou have been collected. A feasible econometric model is established for the vacancy rate calculation. It includes total vacancy rate, waiting sale vacancy rate, unsale vacancy rate and overstock vacancy rate. The results show that the total vacancy rate of commercial houses in Guangzhou dropped down from 2.13% to 1.60% in the observation period. The vacancy rate of residential housing market declined from 1.68% to 1.16%. Generally, the vacancy rate of commercial houses is relatively the highest and the residential houses is the lowest. They are all decreasing in trend. It is suggested that different macro-policies should be taken to manage different sub-markets. The real estate market of Guangzhou, therefore, could be developed for healthier direction.

关 键 词：空置率 待销 滞销 积压 广州 

分 类 号：F407.9[经济管理—产业经济]