中美贸易不平衡及其与美国对华投资相关性研究  

The Causal Relationship of the Trade and Investment between China and America

作　　者：许培源[1] 胡日东[1] 

机构地区：[1]华侨大学商学院

出　　处：《亚太经济》2008年第1期18-23,共6页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

基　　金：国务院侨办科研基金项目(06QSK04);福建省社会科学规划项目(2007B007)赞助

摘　　要：计量研究结果显示:美国对华直接投资与中美贸易之间存在长期的互补关系,尤其制成品的出口与美国对华直接投资之间具有显著的双向因果关系,制成品的出口是美中贸易逆差的因。因此,美国进入中国的FDI,尤其是进入制造业的FDI越多,美国从中国进口就越多,美中贸易逆差越大。这种贸易不平衡的扩大,主要是由于两国要素禀赋的差异和国际分工地位的不同,因而美中贸易逆差是结构性的,不仅不会在短期内消除,而且会随着美国劳动密集型产业向中国的进一步转移而加剧。The results of Econometric analyses showed that the FDI of America to China and trade of both countries are complementary in the long-term. Especially, there is notable two-way causal relationship between the manufactured goods export and FDI. The export of manufactured goods is the cause of America trade deficit both in long-term and short-term. Thus, the more FDI enter the manufacturing industry, the more goods America import from China. So the deficit becomes larger and larger. The enlarging unbalance-trade attributes to the differences of factor endowment and international labor division of the two countries. Thus, the deficit will exist not only in the short-term, but also aggravate as the transfer of labor-intensive industry from America to China.

关 键 词：中关贸易 贸易逆差 直接投资 格兰杰因果关系 

分 类 号：F114.44[经济管理—国际贸易]