基于层次评估和熵理论的舰炮武器研制费用风险分析  

Cost risk analysis of naval gun development based on hierarchy models and entropy criterion

作　　者：田新广[1] 邱志明[1] 段洣毅[2] 

机构地区：[1]海军装备研究院博士后工作站,北京100073 [2]北京交通大学计算技术研究所,北京100029

出　　处：《舰船科学技术》2008年第1期92-95,共4页Ship Science and Technology

基　　金：国家“863”高技术研究发展计划项目资助(863-307-7-5);国防科技基金项目资助(2005JS63·3·1.KG0111)

摘　　要：针对舰炮武器系统研制工程的费用风险分布特征,提出基于层次评估模型的费用风险分析方法,并采用熵判据对费用风险程度进行度量,克服了以往研制费用风险分析中调查繁琐、受专家主观影响较大等缺点。结合具体风险因素分析了舰炮武器系统研制费用风险评估的准则,给出某型大口径舰炮研制的风险分析实例,验证了文中方法的可靠性和有效性。From the viewpoint of risk control and management,a novel method for cost risk analysis based on hierarchy models is proposed according to the cost distribution characteristic of naval gun development, which is more objective than traditional methods. The method gives attention to both analysis accuracy and practicability, and doesn＇t need fussy surveys. The analysis results of the method are not very subject to subjective factors of the evaluating experts. In addition, entropy criterion is adopted to measure the cost risk degree, which reflects the uncertainty of the demanded cost in another aspect. The practical risk factors in naval gun development are enumerated and compared, and their influences on the cost are detailedly analyzed. Then, the guidelines for cost risk evaluation are discussed. Finally an actual example of cost risk analysis in the development of a new naval gun is given, which verifies the efficiency and reliability of the presented method.

关 键 词：费用风险 舰炮 风险分析 层次评估 

分 类 号：TJ391[兵器科学与技术—火炮、自动武器与弹药工程] O211[理学—概率论与数理统计]