2007年5~6月滇西南地区M≥5成组地震活动中、短临异常特征及预测  被引量:19

Medium-term,Short-term and Impending-earthquake Anomaly Characteristics and Prediction of the M≥5 Grouping Earthquakes in Southwest Yunnan during May-June 2007

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作  者:付虹[1] 王世芹[1] 秦嘉政[1] 邬成栋[1] 苏有锦[1] 

机构地区:[1]云南省地震局,昆明650224

出  处:《地震研究》2007年第4期303-310,共8页Journal of Seismological Research

基  金:国家科技支撑计划课题(2006BAC01B02-01-05);云南省人才培引办项目(2006PY01-39)联合资助.

摘  要:给出了2007年滇西南地区中等地震丛集活动的跟踪预测过程,以及云南地区地震活动异常和前兆异常的动态演化图像。这组中等地震中期阶段的异常特征主要是:云南地区长达3年多和滇西南地区长达12年的6级地震平静,小震调制比、高水位和部分前兆的趋势异常显示滇西南从2006年以来处于应力水平相对较高状态;中短期阶段在滇西南出现3级地震活动增强,并形成空区,小的单元体破裂后把能量集中到更大单元体,发生更大地震;短临阶段小震活动不断向震中迁移,空区被打破。中等地震丛集活动过程中,每次新的M≥5地震发生前,滇西南均出现3级震群活动,前兆均有新的异常过程出现。In May-June 2007, a group of M≥ 5 earthquakes occurred clusteringly in Southwest Yunnan. We gave the process of predicting the clustering activity and the dynamic evolution patterns of seismological and precursory anomalies. The Medium-term anomalies of this group earthquakes were mainly characterized by the M≥6 earthquake quiescence beyond 3 years in Yunnan and near 12 years in Southwest Yunnan, and the relatively high stress level in Southwest Yunnan since 2006 reflected by small-shock modulating ratio, high water level and the trend anomalies of some precursors. In the medium-short term stage, M≥3 earthquake increased in Southwest Yuunan and formed seismic gap. After small units ruptured, the energy centralized to a larger block, finally the large earthquake happened. In short-impending stage, small earthquakes continually moved to the epicenters and the seismic gap disappeared. In the process of moderate earthquakes clustering, M≥3 earthquake swarms happened in Southwest Yunnan and new precursor anomaly appeared before each M≥ 5 earthquake.

关 键 词:滇西南 中等地震丛集 异常特征 地震预测 

分 类 号:P315.75[天文地球—地震学]

 

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