德州市近50a来旱涝特征分析  

Analysis of the Drought-flood Characteristic from 1951 to 1999 in Dezhou City

作　　者：刘俊菊[1] 杜国云[1] 孙祝友[1] 黄晓花 周燕 

机构地区：[1]鲁东大学地理与资源管理学院,山东烟台264025 [2]德州市第二中学,山东德州253000

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2008年第1期173-175,共3页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金项目(Z2003E01);鲁东大学校基金项目(20053202)

摘　　要：对德州市1951-1999年的逐年降水数据、区域旱涝灾害成灾面积及降水与成灾之间的相关性进行统计分析。依据Z指标划分7个旱涝等级,给出旱涝指标与旱涝成灾面积的多年变化趋势以及它们之间的相关系数。结果表明:德州市近50 a来,降水变化呈下降趋势;1975年以前偏涝,间或有旱的年份出现,极涝年份为1953年、1961年、1964年;1975年以后偏旱,间或有涝的年份出现,极旱年份为1981年;旱灾面积越来越大,涝灾面积越来越少,20世纪60-70年代为旱涝灾害成灾面积变化的转折点。降水指标为该市今后旱涝预测提供了可能的途径。The precipitation and the disaster area data in Dezhou 1951- 1999 and the relativity between them are analyzed. It compartmentalized seven drought-flood grades by Z-index. The perennial variety current and the interfix coefficient between precipitation and disaster area are given. It indicates that there is more and more droughty trend latter 50 years in Dezhou. In general,the majority of years are waterlogged before 1975 except few years and the years of severe flood in 1953,1961 and 1964; while after 1975, it appears contrary case and the year of severe drought in 1981. There are more and more drought area and leas and less flood area and 60-70＇s is the turning point. The precipitation index provides a possible way to forecast the drought or flood in this city.

关 键 词：德州市 Z指标 旱涝灾害 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]