湛江市耕地面积变化及其驱动力分析  

Analysis on the area change of cultivated land and its driving forces in Zhanjiang

作　　者：陈爱珠[1] 周飞[1] 陈士银[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东海洋大学农学院,广东湛江524088

出　　处：《广东农业科学》2008年第3期33-36,共4页Guangdong Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：广东省科技计划项目(20055090032);广东海洋大学自然科研基金(0512127);广东海洋大学博士启动项目(0612009)

摘　　要：根据湛江市1996～2005年土地利用调查数据及相关社会经济资料,在分析耕地面积时空变化的基础上,采用主成分分析法和多元线性回归分析法对耕地面积变化的驱动力进行了定量研究,结果表明:影响湛江市耕地面积变化的驱动力为人口增长、经济发展、农业结构调整和农业科技进步,湛江市耕地面积在未来10年仍将呈减少趋势,耕地形势不容乐观。According to the statistical and survey data of land use from 1996 to 2005 in Zhanjiang, the paper quantitatively studies the driving forces by the method of principal component analysis and multiple linear regression based on the analysis of the spatio-temporal changes of cultivated land. The results show that the driving forces influencing the area change of cultivated land in Zhanjiang are population growth, economy development, agricultural structure adjustment and agricultural technology improvement. The area of cultivated land in Zhanjiang will be still decreasing in recent 10 years, so the situation of cultivated land is not optimistic.

关 键 词：耕地 面积变化 驱动力 湛江市 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]