鲁南汛期暴雨及其气候背景分析  

Analysis of Heavy Rains in Flood Season and Their Climatic Background in Southern Shandong

作　　者：鹿翠华 王令轸 

机构地区：[1]山东省枣庄市气象局,枣庄277101

出　　处：《气象科技》2008年第1期43-46,共4页Meteorological Science and Technology

摘　　要：统计分析了山东省枣庄1958-2005年逐日及逐月降水资料,发现20世纪50年代末期到60年代中期鲁南为多雨期,60年代中期到60年代末期有一个短暂的少雨期,70年代初中期有一个短暂的多雨期,70年代中期到90年代末期是一个较长时段的降水偏少期。2000年以后进入多雨时期,2000、2003及2005年出现局部洪涝灾害。文章引入相当暴雨日数的概念,研究了相当暴雨日数与大涝、大旱年的关系,发现大涝、大旱年的降水量更取决于汛期相当暴雨日数的多少;用相当暴雨日数和年降水量建立回归方程,在一定程度上,相当暴雨日数能很好地预测当年旱涝。The daily and the monthly precipitation data in Zaozhuang from 1958 to 2005 are analyzed. The results show that the period from the late 1950s to the mid 1960s was relatively wet and that from the early 1960s to the mid 1960s was a short dry period; the period from the mid 1970s to the late 1990s was a long dry period; then, floods occurred in the year of 2000, 2003 and 2005. The concept of ＂the number of equivalent heary rain days＂ is introduced, and the correlation of the number of the equivalent heary rain days and serious drought and flood years is studied. The precipitation of serious drought and flood years are closely correlated with the number of the equivalent heary rain days. The quantitative correlation for the number of the equivalent heary rain days and the annual precipitation is given. In a certain extent, drought/flood forecasts can be made according to the days of heavy rain in flood season.

关 键 词：暴雨日 相当暴雨日数 大旱 大涝 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P457.6