目前我国中期地震预报的困惑与其思考  

Thoughts on the Perplexity of Medium Term Earthquake Prediction in China at Present

作　　者：孙加林[1] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古自治区地震局,呼和浩特010010

出　　处：《国际地震动态》2008年第1期1-8,共8页Recent Developments in World Seismology

摘　　要：2001年昆仑山口西8.1级特大地震发生后,至2006年连续5年,地震界对中国大陆地震形势判定与地震活动实况相差甚大,这是为什么?本文揭示了我国中期地震预报的真实水平和其本质原因,系统地阐述了我国中期地震预报存在的问题,提出了提高中期地震预报水平的主要出路和途径。After the great earthquake of Ms8.1 occurred in west of Kunlun mountain in 2001, a large disparity has been appeared between the judgement of the earthquake situation suggested by the seismological circle and the earthquake activity reality in China's Mainland. What is the cause？ In this paper, the real level and true nature of medium earthquake prediction in China have been revealed, and lots of existing problems in medium term prediction are elaborated systematically. Finally, some suggestions for improving the scientific level of medium term prediction in China have been put forward.

关 键 词：中期预报 问题 原因 出路 思考 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]