订货批量对牛鞭效应的影响分析  

Impact of Retailer's Order Quantity on Bullwhip Effect

作　　者：徐晓燕[1] 马登彪[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学管理学院,安徽合肥230026

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2008年第1期144-147,共4页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70772025)

摘　　要：对于一个采用连续检查(s,S)订货策略的两级供应链,本文运用Markov链理论,通过对正则平稳Markov链行为特征的分析发现,即使不考虑需求预测方法,供货短缺,提前期和价格波动等因素,仅仅零售商的订货批量就能够产生牛鞭效应。研究结果表明,在需求分布和订货批量的变化范围满足一些条件时,减小订货批量有助于减弱牛鞭效应,从而提高供应链的运作效率。For a two-level supply chain, using the continuous review（s, S） policy, disregarding the factors such as forecasting of demand information, supply shortage, lead time, price variance and so on, taking advantage of the theory and techniques of Markov chains to analyze the characteristics of the regular and stationary Markov chains, we find the quantitative relationship between bullwhip effect and order batch and discover that only the order batch factor can produce the bullwhip effect. When the demand distribution and order batch satisfy some certain conditions, for example, the demand distribution is a uniform distribution defined in a zero measured set made up of some positive integers, reducing the order batch can help to mitigate bullwhip effect and consequently raise the efficiency of the operations in supply chains.

关 键 词：供应链管理 牛鞭效应 平稳Markov链 订货批量 

分 类 号：F253.2[经济管理—国民经济]