北江流域汛期的旱涝特征分析及预测  

Drought and Water-logging New Characteristic Analysis in Beijing River Basin During Flooding Season and Future Forecasting

作　　者：刘艳群 洪冠中 

机构地区：[1]韶关市气象局,广东韶关512026 [2]清远市气象局,广东清远511500

出　　处：《人民珠江》2008年第1期21-25,共5页Pearl River

摘　　要：旱涝灾害是北江流域影响最大的气候灾害之一,因其出现的次数多、持续的时间长、影响的范围大,往往会造成严重的经济损失,甚至危及到人们的生命安全,而且还对环境方面有潜在影响。因此了解北江流域区域性旱涝的发生频率、时间分布特征和强度,对建立旱涝监测预警系统,提高防灾减灾能力,促进经济的持续发展,无疑具有十分重要的意义。利用Z指数旱涝指标,对北江流域近42年来汛期的旱涝情况进行分析,结果表明用前期气候指数建立的逐步回归方程预测效果较好。Drought and water- logging are two main nature disasters in Beijiang River Basin. With high frequency, long lasting time and large affected area, the two events will trigger heavy economic lost and threaten to people＇s lives as well as the potential negative influence on the environment. Therefore it is of great necessity to study the frequency, time distribution and density of the drought and water - logging and establish forecasting system, in order to improve the defending system and guarantee the sustainable economic development. Z parameters are used in analyzing the drought and water - logging situations in the flooding seasons in the recent 42 years and it shows that the progressive regression equation achieves a better result in forecasting.

关 键 词：北江流域 汛期 旱涝特征 逐步回归 

分 类 号：P338.6[天文地球—水文科学]