基于随机网络的废弃产品回收预测模型  

A Forecasting Model of Discarded Product Reclaiming Based on Stochastic Network

作　　者：谢家平[1] 吉少华[1] 赵忠[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学国际工商管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《当代经济管理》2008年第2期40-43,共4页Contemporary Economic Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助"废弃产品回收处理策略的经济性分析与优化"(面上项目70472080);国家社会科学基金"建设资源节约型和环境友好型社会的理论与政策研究"(重点项目06&ZD024);2007年"新世纪优秀人才支持计划"资助

摘　　要：针对闭环供应链的逆向物流环节部分,在分析废弃产品回收过程中各相关组织之间的动态关系的基础上,运用随机网络的相关理论,构建了以生产厂商为回收主导的废旧电器产品回收随机网络预测模型。该模型可以求出产品回收至生产厂商的概率、期望时间以及回收产品的数量。并以空调回收为例,进行案例分析。Based on the analysis about the mechanism of discarded product reclamation organizations, the paper focuses on the reverse logistics of the closed-loop supply chain and builds a manufacturer-oriented single discarded electric product reclaiming forecasting model with stochastic network theories. With this model, the probability, time expectation and quantity in the process of single product reclaiming to manufacturer can be easily obtained. Finally, the air-conditioner reclamation is given as an illustration to embody the whole model.

关 键 词：废弃产品 回收 随机网络 预测 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]