出口贸易结构的形成机理：基于我国1980-2005年的经验研究  

Forming Mechanism of Export Trade Structure:An Empirical Study in China from 1980 to 2005

作　　者：隋月红[1] 赵振华[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国计量学院经济与管理学院,310018 [2]浙江金融职业学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2008年第3期9-16,共8页Journal of International Trade

摘　　要：近年来国内学者对我国对外贸易的研究开始将注意力从贸易量转到贸易结构上,但大多数研究只是停留在贸易结构的存在上,而忽视了贸易结构的形成。本文运用格兰杰因果检验和回归分析等方法实证分析了出口贸易结构的形成机理,研究发现:外国直接投资、贸易开放程度、产业结构、汇率变动对我国出口贸易结构的形成有正向作用;研发与创新投入的增加集中表现在资本密集型产品出口比重的增加;我国出口贸易结构易造成对外贸易摩擦,但贸易摩擦并没反作用于贸易结构;对外直接投资对我国出口贸易结构仍不能产生作用。Most researchers begin to direct their attention from trade volume to trade structure. However, they are concerned about the existence of trade structure, and ignore an essential issue-what is the forming mechanism of the trade structure？ So, this paper analyzes the forming mechanism of export trade structure in China through Granger causality test and OLS. The paper finds that the FDI flow-in, opening degree of trade, industry structure, exchange rate are positive for enlarging the proportion of manufactured goods in export trade; strong increase in R＆D leads to the enlargment of capital-intensive goods exportation proportion; export trade structure tends to cause foreign trade friction, but it can not work on the adjustment of export trade structure; and FDI flow-out has no effect on export trade structure.

关 键 词：出口贸易结构 格兰杰因果检验 回归分析 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易] X703[经济管理—产业经济]