华北地区冬小麦干旱风险评估的初步研究  

PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE DROUGHT RISK ASSESSMENT OF WINTER WHEAT IN NORTH CHINA

作　　者：王石立[1] 娄秀荣[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》1997年第3期63-68,共6页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家科委85-006-01-17<华北农业干旱监测预报与影响评估技术研究>课题

摘　　要：作者在本文中探讨了利用风险分析进行气象灾害影响评估的方法。根据华北地区冬小麦干旱的特点，确定了小麦各发育阶段在有限灌溉条件下的干旱指标及发生概率。利用ＦＡＯ产量与水分关系模型，计算出干旱引起的减产率，并综合考虑当地抗灾性能和承灾体密度，得到冬小麦各发育阶段及全生育期的干旱风险度，进行分级定量评估。为小麦持续高产稳产决策提供科学依据。The method of influence assessment of meteorological disasters using risk analysis is discussed.The drought indexes of winter wheat in various development stages under limited irrigation are determined and the drought probabilities are calculated.Based on the model of yield response to water by FAO the reductions of yield resulted from drought are estimated.Combined with property of combating drought and density of damaged system the drought risk degrees are obtained for each development stage and whole growing season,and also the drought influence assessment is made on the basis of risk degree classification.The results could provide scientific basis for decision making of sustainable development of winter wheat.

关 键 词：冬小麦 干旱 风险度评估 华北地区 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护] S512.1