中国工业增长的性质:资本驱动或资源驱动  

What's Type of Industrial Growth of China:Capital-driven or Resource-driven

作　　者：张其仔[1] 郭朝先[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所,北京100836

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2008年第3期14-22,共9页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"资源约束条件下的工业增长问题研究"(批准号05&ZD054);国家科技支撑计划项目"跨区经济发展动态仿真模拟技术开发"(批准号2006BAC18B03)

摘　　要：经济增长可以分为资源驱动、劳动驱动、资本驱动和技术驱动等不同的形式,大多数研究认为,我国的经济增长属于资本驱动型。但这个结论是在排除了资源环境因素影响后得出的。本文在纳入资源环境因素后,对影响工业增长的因素进行了研究,结果发现,资源环境对工业增长的贡献大大高于资本的贡献,我国的工业增长仍属于资源驱动型。我国工业增长的这种性质决定了我国经济增长的性质还没有完全摆脱资源驱动型的特征。这一特征对我国宏观经济政策的效果、对宏观经济政策包及宏观调控方式的选择都有着重要影响。Economic growth may include four models such as natural-driven, labour-driven, capital-driven, and technology-driven model. Most of researches found that economic growth of China is capital-driven, few researches argued that it is technology-driven while natural resources and environment factors were not taken into account. Our paper makes analysis of industrial economic growth based on the model including natural resource and environment factors and argues that the industrial economic growth and economic growth of China still are resource-driven, which has siginificnt influences in the effects of macroeconomic policy and the choice of macroeconomic policy packages and methodology.

关 键 词：工业增长 资源环境 IS—LM—EE 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济]