大连城市发展规划对近岸海域环境影响评价的不确定性分析  

Uncertainty Analysis on Dalian Urban Development Plan to Offshore Areas Environmental Impact Assessment

作　　者：吴洪斌[1] 曾思育[1] 陈吉宁[1] 刘毅[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学环境科学与工程系,北京100084

出　　处：《环境卫生工程》2008年第1期23-26,30,共5页Environmental Sanitation Engineering

摘　　要：通过对城市规划本质的分析,识别其产生不确定性的原因体现在社会经济发展规模、结构、空间布局的不确定性。基于此建立不确定性分析方法,用情景分析给出未来规模、结构几种最具代表性的发展态势、处理规模和结构的不确定性;用空间大样本随机采样模拟未来空间布局的所有可能性,处理布局的不确定性;预测每个样本的环境影响,然后通过统计分析的方法对所有样本的预测结果进行超标概率分析、超标原因分析,得到相应规划评价结论。该方法应用于大连城市发展规划近岸海域环境影响评价,得出超标海域具体分布及超标程度、主要污染源、敏感行业、敏感原因等信息,为形成最终的环境影响评价结论提供重要依据。Uncertain impacts on urban environment due to the uncertainties in scale, structure and spatial arrangement of socio-economical development were identified by planning essence analysis. Then uncertainty analysis methods were founded. The scenario analysis method was selected to manage uncertainty from development scale and structure, with the different scenarios standing for different development possibilities. The random sampling method was used to produce all kinds of spatial arrangement in the potential urban development space. Based on simulation of environmental impact of each sample, statistic analysis methods were applied to integrate the simulation results. The method was utilized to evaluate the impacts of Dalian City＇s Urban Development Plan on offshore areas environment. The spatial arrangement of sea areas whose pollution loads exceeded the load discharge permission and extent of the overloading, main pollutant sources, the sensitive industries and the reason why some industries become sensitive were gained. It provided important basis for forming final results of environmental impact assessment.

关 键 词：城市发展规划 环境影响评价 不确定性分析 环境敏感行业 

分 类 号：X820.3[环境科学与工程—环境工程] TU984[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]