气候变化对三江源兴海县草地气候生产潜力的影响  

Influence of Climate Change on Grassland Productivity to in Xinghai County in the Source Regions of Yangtze River

作　　者：郭连云[1] 吴让 汪青春[3] 蓟尚玛 

机构地区：[1]青海省海南州气象局,青海共和813000 [2]青海省兴海县气象局,青海兴海813200 [3]青海省气候中心,青海西宁810001

出　　处：《中国草地学报》2008年第2期5-10,共6页Chinese Journal of Grassland

基　　金：中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF2007-28);国家自然科学基金项目(40665002)

摘　　要：利用三江源区兴海县草原区46年的气候资料，分析了气温、降水的变化趋势及其对草地气候生产潜力的影响。结果表明：三江源区兴海县气候总体上呈暖干化趋势，46年来年平均气温上升了1．6℃，平均每10年升高0．35℃；年降水量变化总体上呈不显著的增加态势，增加幅度为2．imm／10a；草地气候生产力呈增加趋势。降水量是影响该地区草地气候生产潜力的关键因子，未来“暖湿型”气候对兴海草地干物质生产有利，平均增产幅度为2％～4％，而“冷干型”气候对草地的干物质生产最为不利，平均减产幅度为3％～7％。若气温升高1～2℃、降水量增加10％～20％，则兴海草地的气候生产力将增加2％～4％。Using 46 years data in grassland of Xinghai region in the source regions of Yangtze River, Yellow River and Lancang River, the variations characteristics of temperature and precipitation and its influence on the climatic potential grassland productivity were analyzed. The result indicated that the climatic tendency of Xinghai County is drywarming, The mean temperature has been increased by 1.6℃ in the recent 46 years, the annual average temperature was ascending by 0. 35℃ per 10 years, the tendency of the annual precipitation variation has not been increased obviously in the recent 46 years, the precipitation is increased by 2. 1mm per 10 years, the tendency of the climatic potential grassland productivity shows a increasing trend. The precipitation is the key factor for climatic potential grassland productivity, it is benefit for dry matter circulation when the climate become warm and humid in the future, and the increase range is from 2% to 4% , but when the climate become cold and dry, the dry matter weight is decreased, the range is from 3% to 7%. If temperature has been rising by 1℃ to 2℃ and the precipitation increases by 10% to 20%, the climatic potential grassland productivity will increase by 2% to 4% in grassland of Xinghai region.

关 键 词：三江源 气候变化 草地生产力 

分 类 号：S812.1[农业科学—草业科学]