用树木年轮重建阿勒泰西部5～9月365年来的月平均气温序列  

Development of Two Tree-ring Width Chronologies of the Samples Collected from the Baluntai Region

作　　者：张同文[1] 袁玉江[1] 喻树龙[1] 魏文寿[1] 杨青[1] 尚华明[1] 丁雷 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所 [2]新疆林业局昭苏林场,新疆昭苏835600

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2008年第2期288-294,共7页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40475041);中国气象局项目“利用年轮气候与遥感技术监测新疆干旱区森林长势”;中国沙漠气象科学研究基金(sqi2004001);静天山山区树轮标本采集与年表研制;中国气象局重点实验室开放研究项目“新疆天山北坡树木年轮气候研究”资助

摘　　要：根据新疆阿勒泰西部地区5个采点的树木年轮样本，建立了该地区的树轮年表。通过相关普查发现，自回归年表序列与该地区当年5～9月的月平均气温存在明显的正相关关系，且具有树木生理学意义。用沙勒哈（t＋1），吉克音（t，t＋2）3个树轮自回归年表序列，可较好地重建该地区365年来当年5—9月的月平均气温，且经过交叉检验表明重建方程稳定可靠。通过分析发现，阿勒泰西部地区365年来的重建月平均气温序列具有5个偏冷阶段和5个偏暖阶段，并且具有13～14年和7年的显著冷暖变化准周期。重建月平均气温序列在1684，1706，1746，1767，1802，1839，1859，188l，1909年和1949年前后发生过突变。In this paper, the main characteristic parameters of 2 standardized chronologies of tree-ring samples collected from the Baluntai region and that of 9 standardized chronologies of tree-ring samples collected from the mountainous regions in the headwaters of the Urumqi River are compared. The results show that the climatic infor-mation contained in the standardized chronologies of tree-ring samples collected from the Baluntai region is possibly more than that from the mountainous regions in the headwaters of the Urumqi River. After analyzing the correlation coefficients between the chronologies of the tree-ring samples collected from these two regions, it is found that the correlation between these chronologies is significant and at significance level of 0.01, which reveals that these chro-nologies contain possibly the climatic information of larger extent covering both southern and northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains. The chronologies of the tree-ring samples collected from the Forstan Valley and the mountain-ous regions in the headwaters of the Urumqi River contain possibly more climatic information about the whole Tians-ban Mountains than that from the Saserk Valley because of their higher correlation coefficients. After comparing, it is found that the average value of the high- and low-frequency information of the chronologies of tree-ring samples collected from the Baluntai region is higher than that from the mountainous regions in the headwaters of the Urumqi River, and the high-frequency information content of tree-ring samples collected from both Forstan Valley and the mountainous regions in the headwaters of the Urumqi River is higher than the low-frequency information content.

关 键 词：树轮年表 月平均气温 冷暖变化 阿勒泰 新疆 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]