灰色模型GM(1,1)在肺结核发病率预测中的应用及预防控制策略  

THE APPLICATION OF GM(1,1) ON PREDICTION OF THE PULMONARY TUBERCULOSIS INCIDENCE AND PREVENTIVE AND CONTROLLING STRATEGY

作　　者：徐勇[1] 杨小兵[1] 彭磊[1] 贺圆圆[1] 魏巍[1] 严薇荣[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖北省宜昌市疾病预防控制中心,宜昌443000 [2]华中科技大学同济医学院流行病与卫生统计学系

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2008年第6期1031-1033,共3页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：[目的]预测宜昌市肺结核发病趋向,为制定针对性的防治管理措施提供依据。[方法]根据宜昌市1997～2006年的肺结核发病率,应用灰色系统理论,建立肺结核发病率预测模型,进行中长期预测研究。[结果]预测结果显示,2007～2010年宜昌市的肺结核发病率分别为160.782/10万,180.535/10万,202.715/10万和227.621/10万。[结论]预测表明2007～2010年宜昌市肺结核年发病率将以12.3%的增幅继续上升,应大力加强健康教育、治疗管理等综合性防治措施控制肺结核的发病。[Objective]To predict incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Yichang,so as to provide basis for instituting aimed preventive management and measurement.[Methods]According to the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis of Yichang from 1997 to 2006,the predictive mode of for pulmonary tuberculosis was established by grey system theory to carry out middle and long term predictive research.[Results]From 2007 to 2010,the predictive results demonstrated that the incidences of pulmonary tuberculosis in Yichang were 160.782/105,180.535/105,202.715/105 and 227.621/105,respectively.[Conclusion]The predictive results demonstrated that the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis will increase by 12.3% per year from 2007 to 2010,efforts should be taken to strengthen the comprehensive preventive and controlling measurement for TB,such as health education,therapy management and so on.

关 键 词：肺结核 预测 灰色模型 

分 类 号：R195.1[医药卫生—卫生统计学]