气象因素对心脑血管疾病日死亡人数影响的时间序列研究  

A TIME-SERIES STUDY ON EFFECT OF METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS ON THE DAILY MORBILITY OF CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES

作　　者：朱勇[1] 陈晓东[2] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学公共卫生学院,南京210009 [2]江苏省疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2008年第6期1036-1037,1040,共3页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：[目的]研究气象因素对心脑血管疾病日死亡人数的影响。[方法]采用时间序列的Poisson广义相加模型,在控制了时间的长期趋势、季节趋势和其他混杂因素后,研究南京市2004年1月1日～2004年12月31日期间气象因素对心脑血管疾病日死亡人数的影响。[结果]心脑血管疾病日死亡人数与日平均温度、日平均地面气压之间呈线性相关,回归系数分别为-0.01859(P﹤0.0001)和-0.00138(P﹤0.0001)。[结论]随着日平均温度的降低、日平均地面气压的降低,心脑血管疾病日死亡人数都是增加的。[Objective]To study the effect of meteorological factors on the daily morbidity of cardiovascular diseases.[Methods]By the Poisson generalized additive mode of time-series study,the effect of meteorological factors on the daily morbidity of cardiovascular diseases in Nanjing from January 1th to December 31th was analyzed after controlling the time secular trend,season trend and other confounding factors.[Results]The number of people died from cardiovascular diseases was associated with the daily average temperature and daily average surface pressure,and the regression coefficients were -0.01859（P﹤0.000 1）and -0.00138（P﹤0.000 1）,respectively.[Conclusion]The mobility of patient with cardiovascular diseases increases with the reducing of daily average temperature and daily average surface pressure.

关 键 词：气象因素 心脑血管疾病 死亡 时间序列 广义相加模型 

分 类 号：R541.9[医药卫生—心血管疾病]