Multi-Agent System模型在土地利用／覆盖变化中的研究进展  

A Review on Multi-Agent System for the Simulation of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change

作　　者：陈海[1] 梁小英[1] 高海东[1] 王涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北大学城市与资源学系

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2008年第2期345-352,共8页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划基金(973,G2000018607);国家自然基金(40601005)

摘　　要：在微观与中宏观尺度上,MAS模型可以反映景观中具有自动性、异质性和分散性的人类决策,利于阐明智能体对自然与社会经济环境的适应机制。因而在自然资源管理、农业经济和城市模拟等领域得到广泛应用。目前,该模型的研究主要集中在智能体决策、智能体相互作用、模型多尺度、模型检验与验证等几个方面。综合分析得出如下结论:①智能体决策框架还需进一步完善,特别有限理性决策框架(Bounded Rationality)还需进一步完善;②智能体之间相互作用的研究仍停留在定性的、概念性的水平,还需进一步研究定量分析智能体相互作用的方法;③在多尺度研究中,第一种尺度转化途径机理明确,但决策的空间显性(spatially-explicit)表达较为困难;第二种途径可以表达空间显性,但决策与土地利用变化之间的逻辑解释不强;第三种途径可以表达土地利用过程中决策与复杂性关系,但智能体之间的相互作用处理较为简单;④还需加强对模型的检验与验证方面的研究,探索验证人类复杂行为的技术方法。In fine-scale and area scale, MAS/LUCC models are particularly well suited for representing complex spatial interactions under heterogeneous conditions and for modeling decentralized, autonomous decision making. Current researchers choose to use MAS/LUCC models in three topic areas： natural resource management, agricultural economics and urban simulations. At the present time, researchers focus on three aspects： the agent decision-making, the agent interaction and the model multi-scale analysis. Through reviewing on multi-agent system of simulation, four conclusions can be drawn： first, the frame of agent decision-making should be improved, especially the frame of bounded rationality decision-making. Second, the research on the agent interaction still use qualitative and conceptual method, it is necessary to explore the quantitative meth- od to analyze interaction among agents. Third, there are three methods in multi-scale topic research. Through the transform mechanism of different scales being clear in the first method, it is difficult to explicit spatially the decision-making. The second method may explicit spatially the decision-making, but the explanation power between LUCC and decision-making is not strong. The third method may reveal the relationship between the complexities and the decision-making, which is simple to deal with the agent interaction. Finally, it is necessary to seek the methods of verification and validation upon MAS model.

关 键 词：土地利用/覆盖变化 多智能体模型 模型 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]