灰色GERT网络及基于顾客需求的灰数估计精度  

Grey Graphical Evaluation Review Technique Network and Its Estimation Precision of Grey Numbers Based on Clients

作　　者：阮爱清[1] 刘思峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210016

出　　处：《系统工程》2007年第12期100-104,共5页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70473037);南京航空航天大学特聘教授科研创新基金资助项目(1009-260812)

摘　　要：在应用随机网络(graphical evaluation review technique,简称GERT)解决问题的过程中要求准确知道活动参数的概率分布。但是由于信息的贫乏以及信息的不完全性,人们无法对某些参数的进行准确的判断,因此灰数成为有效的描述工具。本文建立灰色随机网络模型,并对其分类和求解问题进行较为系统的研究。由于灰色GERT网络的结果具有一定灰度,本文在灰数覆盖特性的基础上,提出基于顾客需求的灰数估计精度的概念,从而给出在灰度无法计算情况下的计算结果的判断方法。并且通过算例介绍了它的应用及其实际意义。In this paper, Grey Graphical Evaluation Review Technique （GERT in brief） Network is put forward and its model is built up,for that the method of GERT Network requires accurate parameters of action,and however,people usually can not find out exact value of parameters because of limited information of real life. By Grey GERT Network, many actions are easier to be described and discussed. This paper defines several types of Grey GERT Network and searches for the approach to solution. And the estimating precision is advanced to measure the uncertainty of estimation on the condition that the degree of greyness can not be calculated. Two examples are also given to show the practical meaning.

关 键 词：系统 GERT网络 灰数 估计精度 迷宫问题 加工流程 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]