人口老龄化与居民高储蓄——理论及中国的经验研究  

Aging Population and High Household Savings ——Theories and Empirical Study in China

作　　者：唐东波[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学商学院

出　　处：《金融论坛》2007年第9期3-9,共7页Finance Forum

摘　　要：本文首先借助于一个简单的两期叠代模型,揭示了人口年龄结构与最优储蓄之间的关系,进而发现,人口老龄化一般会使得居民最优储蓄增加。随后,我们运用向量自回归模型(VAR)实证考察了人口年龄结构等因素对中国居民储蓄的影响。实证研究表明:不论是短期还是长期,人口年龄结构对中国居民储蓄的作用都是显著的扩张性影响。根据现阶段中国居民高储蓄与人口老龄化关系密切的事实,并结合原因探索,本文最后提出了关于有效利用现阶段人口红利和居民高储蓄以及降低未来居民储蓄倾向的若干政策建议。This paper examines the relationship between the age structure of population and the optimal savings with reference to a simple two-period iterative model. It shows that an aging population usually increases the optimal household savings. Furthermore, by using a vector autoregressive model, the author makes an empirical study on the influential factors on the Chinese household savings, such as the age structure of population. The conclusion reveals that no matter in short run or in long run, the age structure of population always makes a significantly positive influence on the Chinese household savings. Finally, according to the empirical result and the possible reasons, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to make full use of the current demographic dividend and the high household savings, and how to decrease the future household saving tendency.

关 键 词：居民储蓄 国民收入 人口老龄化 VAR模型 

分 类 号：D669.6[政治法律—政治学] F832.2[政治法律—中外政治制度]