银川盆地各活动断裂分段地震危险性研究  

Research on seismic risk of segments of each active fault located in Yinchuan Basin

作　　者：赵卫明[1] 张学辉[1,2] 盛菊琴[1] 曾宪伟[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]宁夏回族自治区地震局,宁夏银川750001 [2]中国地震局兰州地震研究所,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2007年第B12期79-83,共5页Journal of Natural Disasters

摘　　要：在银川市城市活断层探测项目中，针对工作区强震记载少且空档大、活动断层相距近等问题，应用弱震和部分比较可信的强震发生率，提出相应的方法计算了相关的地震活动参数，最后给出了工作区各活动断裂分段未来一定年限内各震级档的条件发震概率和合成发震概率，以及可能发生的最大震级等。In the project of urban active fault exploration for Yinchuan City, aiming at some questions of few strong shock records, large interval of strong shock magnitude and active, faults being close apart in research area ,we apply occurrence rate of weak shock and some strong shock having relative credibility to put forward corresponding method computing correlative parameters of seismic activity. Finally we gain conditional probability and compound probability of each magnitude interval of segments of each active fault in research area among certain years in the future, and the largest earthquake probably occurring.

关 键 词：城市活断层探测 研究区 最大熵原理 条件概率 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]