京津地区儿童呼吸系统疾病医疗气象预报初步研究  

The Basic Research on Medical-Meteorological Forecast of Children Respiratory Disease in Beijing and Tianjin Area

作　　者：张德山 刘燕 丁德平 张姝丽 穆启占 王燕[2] 宛公展[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京市专业气象台,北京100089 [2]天津医科大学总医院,天津300100 [3]天津市气象科学研究所,天津300074

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2007年第6期804-810,共7页Climatic and Environmental Research

摘　　要：通过研究京津地区儿童呼吸系统3种常见疾病(感冒、气管炎、肺炎)发病与环境气象条件的可能联系,发现气温、气温日较差和风速等气象要素与疾病发病率有一定的相关关系。依此,采用岭回归技术,建立了医疗气象预报模式。并用Visual Basic 6.0语言搭建了每日医疗气象滚动预报软件平台,可用于日常业务预报。The certain correlation between the incidence of respiratory diseases and the weather factors of temperature, temperature daily range, and wind speed, etc is found by studying the possible relationships between the three kinds of familiar respiratory diseases of children （cold, tracheitis, pneumonia） in Beijing and Tianjin area. Ridge regression technique is adopted to build up the medical-meteorological forecast model. A computer software for daily medical-meteorological forecast has been made and can be used for daily operation.

关 键 词：儿童 呼吸系统疾病 医疗气象预报 

分 类 号：R122[医药卫生—环境卫生学]