大盈江流域降雨径流变化趋势及原因分析  

STUDY ON RAINFALL AND RUNOFF CHANGE TENDENCY AND ITS CAUSES IN THE DAYINGJIANG WATERSHED

作　　者：徐淑升[1] 冯彦[1] 罗艳[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南大学亚洲国际河流中心,云南昆明650091

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2007年第A02期59-64,共6页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：973国家重点基础研究发展规划项目“纵向岭谷区生态系统变化及西南跨境生态安全（2003CB415100）”

摘　　要：采用滑动平均法、累积距平法和Mann—Kendall检验法对大盈江流域1956年以来逐月长系列降雨、径流资料进行分析研究。结果显示：大盈江流域降雨与径流变化过程关系密切，但两者变化趋势因受气候与人类活动干扰表现出一定的差异；近45年来，降雨呈增多趋势（通过了α=0．05的M-K检验），其中9月份降雨量增多趋势非常明显（通过了α=0．01的M-K检验）；与降雨量的显著增多不同，年径流量的增加趋势不显著，其中2月份径流量显著减少，9月份径流量显著增多（均通过了α0．05的N-K检验），且年内分配不均匀程度增大。流域降雨的增加可能是由于全球气候变暖，导致南亚季风增强引起的。影响年径流量的因素较复杂，气候变化和地下径流量等自然因素是主要原因，但人类活动影响的作用正在增加。旱季人类活动对径流量影响较大。Applied the running mean method, cumulative average deviation and Mann-Kendall trend analysis this paper analyzed the monthly data of rainfall and runoff from 1956 to 2000 in the Dayingjiang River Basin. The results showed that the changes of rainfall and runoff were in affinity, but there were some differences between the two change tendencies because of the climate change and human activities; In last 45 years, rainfall had showed significant upward trend （passed the MK test at 0.05 level）, the upward trend in Sep was more noticeable （passed the MK test at 0.01 level）; Different from rainfall, the trend of runoff evolvement was not distinct, but the upward trend of runoff in Sep. was distinct, the downward trend in Feb was distinct, and the unevenness of runoff became greater. The increase of rainfall was probably caused by the climate change and more powerful South Asia monsoon. The reason of annual runoff was more complicated, the climate change, groundwater runoff and other nature factors were the main reasons, and the influence by human activities had become greater. The influence by human activities was noticeable in dry seasons.

关 键 词：降雨 径流 Mann—Kendall检验 大盈江 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学] P332.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]