2006年汛期VIC水文模型模拟结果分析  

Simulation of VIC Hydrologic Model During 2006 Flood Season

作　　者：林建 谢正辉[2] 陈锋[2] 肖子牛[3] 薛建军 

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081 [2]中国科学院大气物理研究所 [3]云南省气象局

出　　处：《气象》2008年第3期69-77,共9页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(批准号：90411007);;国家重点基础研究发展规划(批准号：2005CB321703、2004CB418307)中国气象局基建项目;淮河流域气象开放研究基金的联合资助

摘　　要：利用大尺度陆面水文模型VIC及其汇流模型模拟了2006年5-9月全国0.5°×0.5°逐日径流深和土壤相对湿度分布,对淮河流域2006年汛期(6月28日—7月5日)强降水过程期间的模拟结果进行了渍涝灾害的分析。同时对流域主要水文站逐日流量(0.5°×0.5°)过程进行了模拟,并与实况作了对比分析;并且针对淮河流域不同空间分辨率(0.5°×0.5°及0.1°×0.1°)下主要水文站点的逐日流量过程进行了比较。结果表明:VIC模型模拟的径流深和土壤相对湿度分布与降水分布是一致的,模拟土壤湿度具有可用性。利用累计降水、径流分布和土壤相对湿度及流量变化可以监测渍涝灾害的发生;VIC模型及其汇流模型在一定程度上可以反映出实际流量的变化趋势,模拟流量对降水较敏感,细网格模拟流量在量值上与实况更为接近;模拟结果误差可能跟汇流模型中流域边界的确定、参数率定、气象强迫资料等因素有关。The runoff and water content in soil and the discharge of hydrologic station in China during the flood season of 2006 are simulated by using the VIC （Variable Infiltration Capacity） hydrologic model, with emphasis on the water logging disaster produced by a heavy rainfall case from 28 June to 5 July 2006 in the valley of Huaihe River. Performance of the model in simulating the discharge over the Huaihe River basin is examined in different horizontal resolutions, e.g. , coarse mesh and fine mesh（0.5°×0.5° and 0.1°×0.1°）. Results show that patterns of simulated runoff and soil humidity are consistent with that of rainfall and the model output for soil humidity is reasonable for reference.Temporal variation in the accumulated rainfall,runoff and soil humidity can be used to monitor the water logging disaster.VIC land surface model and conflux model are able to reproduce the trend of real-istic discharge in some degree.Discharge simulation is sensitive to rainfall and is more realistic in the case of fine mesh than in the case of coarse mesh.Model error likdy comes from the unreasonable boundary of the drainage basin, calibration of parameters and atmospheric forcing data.

关 键 词：VIC模型 径流 土壤湿度 流量 渍涝 

分 类 号：P641.2[天文地球—地质矿产勘探] P467[天文地球—地质学]