采用AHP方法的气象服务社会经济效益定量评估分析  

Implement AHP to Evaluate Socioeconomic Benefit of Meteorological Service by Quantitative Analysis

作　　者：扈海波[1] 王迎春[1] 李青春[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局北京城市气象研究所,北京100089

出　　处：《气象》2008年第3期86-92,共7页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家科技计划项目衔接-奥运科技专项"北京奥运会国际天气预报示范计划支持技术研究项目(Z0006279040191)";中国气象局新技术推广项目:"气象服务效益评估技术开发与应用(CMATG2007M14)"资助

摘　　要：评估选用社会调查资料中公众对评估指标的得票支持率初始化AHP模型准则层的底层指标权重系数,避免执行AHP方法中繁琐的多指标权重计算,然后以AHP模型为基准对气象服务产品的社会经济效益进行定量化评估。评估以"现有常规气象服务产品"及"FDP产品"为AHP方案层的备选方案,评估权重适当向体现奥运气象服务需求的指标项倾斜。评估结果表明FDP产品在满足现有用户气象服务及奥运气象服务需求上享有绝对的优势。研究得出:现有天气预报产品需要进一步提高预报结果的时间和空间分辨率;需要丰富FDP等短时临近预报产品的信息传递方式;需要提高信息传递的及时性,改进气象服务的质量。A method to fill the weight coefficient of the index on criterion layer of the AHP model with voting by the public questionnaire is presented, and this could avoid complicated matrix cal- culating, purposed for the evaluating socioeconomic benefit of meteorological service with quanti-tative analysis, The evaluating model takes products of the routine meteorological service and that of the Forecasting Demonstration Projects （FDP） weight coefficient is slightly apt to the requirement of as candidate on the AHP scheme layer, and the the meteorological service of Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. However, the result indicates that the FDP is much more satisfactory than the routine in the needs of the public and that of Olympic Game. It can be concluded that the spatial and temporal resolution of the present forecasting products should be promoted relatively according to the public＇s wish, and it should enrich the way to transfer the information provided by short-time forecasting products, enhance the timeliness of information transfer, and improve the meteorological service quality.

关 键 词：层次分析 气象服务评估 奥运气象服务 

分 类 号：P45[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] F326.2[经济管理—产业经济]