2008北京奥运会中国金牌赶超美国的可能性——基于东道主效应的分析和预测  

The Probability of China's Gold Medals Surpassing that of United States in 2008 Beijing Olympic Games——Based on Home Advantage

作　　者：吴殿廷[1] 吴颖[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2008年第3期60-64,共5页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(49971001)资助成果

摘　　要：2008年北京奥运会中国代表团能否在家门口实现金牌、奖牌数的新突破从而取代美国成为第一金牌大国,国人充满期待。文章提出了东道国效应的测算办法,利用GM(1,1)模型预测了中美两国可能获得的金牌总数。考虑到东道主效应,中国金牌数赶超美国几成定局。要理智对待金牌和奖牌,当好东道主,展现大国风貌。Whether the Chinese delegation could make new breakthrough and win more gold medals to replace US to rank first in the list of gold medal in 2008 Beijing Olympic Games,Chinese people will wait for the moment.This article puts forward the measurement of home advantage,and predicts the total number of gold medals gained by Chinese and American delegations by using GM（1,1） model.Considering the host country effect,it is almost a foregone conclusion that China will catch up with the US in terms of gold medals.

关 键 词：东道主效应 奥运金牌数 中国 美国 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]