基于蒙特卡罗法的高压直流输电系统可靠性评估  

Reliability Evaluation of HVDC Transmission System Based on Monte Carlo Method

作　　者：蒋金良[1] 王遂[1] 任震[1] 

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学电力学院,广东广州510640

出　　处：《华南理工大学学报（自然科学版）》2008年第2期128-132,共5页Journal of South China University of Technology(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(50337010)

摘　　要：针对故障树分析法在高压直流输电系统可靠性评估中的不足,提出一种以蒙特卡罗法为基础并结合故障树分析,对直流输电系统进行可靠性评估的方法.首先根据引起直流输电系统失效的原因,建立高压直流输电系统的故障树结构,建树过程中考虑了元件的维修与备用相关性;然后采用改进的蒙特卡罗仿真技术对该故障树进行模拟分析,并对一实际直流输电系统进行了仿真,结果表明所提方法是合理和有效的.In order to overcome the drawbacks of the fault tree analysis （FTA） in the reliability evaluation of highvoltage circuit current （HVDC） transmission system, this paper proposes a novel method based on the Monte Carlo method and the FTA. In the proposed method, a fault tree is established according to the causes of system failure and with the component maintenance and backup dependency being considered. The fault tree is then simulated by the improved Monte Carlo simulation technique. Simulated results of a real HVDC transmission system show that the proposed method is feasible and effective .

关 键 词：高压直流输电系统 可靠性评估 故障树分析 蒙特卡罗法 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]