基于灰色系统模型的城市承灾经济协调性分析  

Analysis of economic coordination of urban disaster-carrying based on grey systems model

作　　者：张明媛[1] 袁永博[1] 周晶[1] 冯士森[2] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学土木水利学院,大连116085 [2]大连理工大学经济系,大连116085

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2008年第3期171-176,共6页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50378012)

摘　　要：在经济承灾子系统中,基础经济要素对城市承灾能力起着重要的辅助作用.利用系统协同思想,将防灾减灾投入经费与GDP、保险密度与人均可支配收入两对"减灾投入-经济产出"关系作为承灾能力中经济要素协调度的构成,建立了经济承灾子系统综合协调度计算式.针对已有的协调度量化计算方法的不足,联合灰色系统理论中的GM(1,n)分析和灰色关联分析两种方法求得系统协调度,对大连市经济承灾子系统近十年的协调发展情况作以分析.计算得出的大连市的防灾减灾投入经费与GDP协调度和保险密度与人均可支配收入协调度值都不高,导致大连市经济承灾子系统综合协调度偏低的结果.应用灰色系统理论建立基于小样本数据的模型进行的协调性分析可以得到较为准确合理的结论.The basal economic factors were important to urban disaster-carrying capability in the economic subsystem. Based on the collaboration, the integrated coordinating degree of economic disaster carrying sub-system model was set up while the two ＂disaster-reduce expenditure-economic output＂ relationship couples of expenditure of disasterdefend and gross domestic product（GDP） as well as the insurance density and available income per person were considered as the compound of economic factors coordinating degree in the urban disaster-carrying capability. Aiming at the defect of existent methods,the GM（ 1, n） analysis and grey relational analysis were combined to work out system coordinating degree so that the coordination analysis about the coordinating situation of lately decade in Dalian. The result was gotten that the coordinating degree of expenditure of disaster-defend and GDP as well as insurance density and available income per person were both not high which result in that the integrated coordinating degree of economic disaster carrying sub-system is lower. The conclusions which were gotten from model of little samples used to do coordination analysis based on grey system theory were reasonable.

关 键 词：承灾能力 经济要素 协调度 灰色系统 

分 类 号：N94[自然科学总论—系统科学]