男男同性恋人群规模估计方法及外推初步研究  

Methods exploration of estimating the size of the men who have sex with men and its extending estimation

作　　者：方鹏骞[1] 孙杨[1] 李仕梁 徐娟[1] 孔鹏[1] 李翠[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学同济医学院医药卫生管理学院,湖北武汉430030 [2]湖北省武汉市皮肤病性病防治研究所,湖北武汉430031

出　　处：《复旦学报（医学版）》2008年第2期236-239,243,共5页Fudan University Journal of Medical Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(30471479)

摘　　要：目的探讨科学、合理地估计同性恋人群规模的方法,为我国制定男男同性恋人群干预计划和艾滋病防治工作提供依据。方法合理选择男男同性恋活动场所,应用捕获-再捕获和乘数法对某省某市同性恋人群进行规模估计,并应用层次分析法,估计该省其它部分地区男男同性恋人群的规模。结果结合乘数法和捕获-再捕获法计算得出某省某市男男同性恋人群为3558人,95%可信区间为(2840人,4276人),应用层次分析法外推,得到该省其他部分地区同性恋人群规模估计人数11766人。结论捕获-再捕获法和乘数法都是比较可行的对艾滋病高危人群进行规模估计的间接方法,本课题首次采用层次分析法进行规模估计的外推,适合发展中国家在卫生资源有限的情况下进行艾滋病高危人群的规模估计。Objective To study the indirect methods to estimate the size of the men who have sex with men（MSM）.Methods We chose the active locations of MSM reasonably,and used capture-recapture method and multiplier method to estimate the size of MSM in a certain city of a province.Based on the results,we applied the analytic hierarchy process to estimate the size of MSM in other areas of the province.Results Combining the capture-recapture and multiplier method,we computed the number of the MSM in the investigation area is 3558 persons,and 95% confidence interval is 2840 and 4276 persons.Based on the data above and using the analytic hierarchy process,we conclude that the whole number of this kind of population in some parts of the province is 11766 persons.Conclusions Capture-recapture and multiplier methods are credible indirect methods to estimate on size of HIV/AIDS high risk population.This research firstly combined the two methods to estimate the MSM＇s size,and firstly using analytic hierarchy process to extend the MSM＇s size in the other areas.It is suitable for developing country with limited health resource to estimate the size of HIV/AIDS high risk population.

关 键 词：艾滋病 捕获-再捕获 乘数法 男男同性恋 层次分析法 

分 类 号：R593.32[医药卫生—内科学]