降雨量公式的推求方法探讨  

The Method for Deriving Rainfall Depth Formula

作　　者：汪明明[1] 周玉文[1] 赵树旗[1] 王磊[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学建筑工程学院,北京100022

出　　处：《沈阳建筑大学学报（自然科学版）》2008年第2期274-277,共4页Journal of Shenyang Jianzhu University：Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50678009)

摘　　要：目的为了保障雨水池设计的合理性,探讨降雨量公式的推求方法.方法收集日降雨量资料,根据概率分析和数理统计原理,拟合其概率分布模型,推求降雨量公式.原始数据是北京市降雨量日值资料,候选概率分布模型采用对数正态分布(3参数)、皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布、通用极值分布和指数分布(2参数).结果推求出了降雨量公式的表达形式.4种候选概率分布均可作为北京市日降雨量统计样本的理论分布,其中对数正态分布(3参数)拟合结果最好.推求出的降雨量公式的表达形式为D=31.74-30.8 ln(P),更高精度的公式表示形式为D=36.4-20.9ln(P)+2.7933(ln(P))2.结论笔者的推求方法可作为其他城市雨水池设计降雨量公式推求的参考,参数确定后的降雨量公式可用于计算不同重现期的日降雨量.To ensure the rationality of rainwater tank design, we need to deduce rainfall depth formula. Ap- ply the latest fifty years daily rainfall data of the city of Beijing, based on the theory of probability analysis and statistics, four candidate distributions （Three-Parameter Lognormal, Pearson Type Ⅲ, Generalized Extreme Value and Two-Parameter Exponential） were used to fit the observed data and find the most appropriate distribution. The annual multi-sampling series method was used to process rainfall depth data. The assessment was based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test combined with maximum absolute error. Finally the expression of the rainfall depth formula was obtained. On the basis of estimation results, it can be concluded that, four distributions do seem to fit the data sets well. The Three-Parameter Lognormal distribution is the most appropriate distribution for describing the annual multi-sampling rainfall series. The rainfall depth formula is given. The method of deriving rainfall depth formula may be employed to other city or region. Rainfall depth formula with determined parameters may use to generate daily rainfall depths with different recurrence intervals.

关 键 词：降雨量 概率分布 拟合优度检验 降雨量公式 雨水池 

分 类 号：TU992.02[建筑科学—市政工程]