中国城乡收入差距对实际经济增长的阈值效应  

The Threshold Effect of China's Urban-Rural Income Inequality on Real Economic Growth

作　　者：王少平[1] 欧阳志刚 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学经济学院教授,武汉430074 [2]华东交通科技大学经济管理学院讲师,南昌330013

出　　处：《中国社会科学》2008年第2期54-66,共13页Social Sciences in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金的资助,项目编号:70571026

摘　　要：鉴于我国的城乡二元结构,使用泰尔指数更适宜度量和刻画我国的城乡收入差距及其变化特征。非线性阈值协整模型的进一步设定,揭示了我国改革开放以来城乡收入差距与实际经济增长的长期非线性关系。其长期效应的变化,在泰尔指数为0·100处发生机制转移。1978—1991年,我国城乡收入差距对实际增长的长期效应为正;1992—1999年,收入差距对实际增长的效应由正向负平滑转换;1999年后,我国城乡收入差距对实际经济增长产生阻滞作用,且负效应呈逐年增加趋势。Given China’s dual urban-rural structure,this paper employs the Theil index for measuring and depicting China’s urban-rural income disparity and its characteristics.Furthermore,this paper specifies a nonlinear threshold cointegration model to reveals a nonlinear relationship between the urban-rural income gap and real economic growth over a long period since reform and opening up in China.Our results show that the regime switch of the long-term nonlinear threshold relationship takes place at the 0.100(threshold value)of the Theil index.From 1978 to 1991,the long-term effect of the urban- rural income disparity on China’s economic growth was positive;between 1992 and 1999,there was a smooth transition to a negative effect;and from 1999 on,the negative effect has been increasing year by year.Income disparity now has the effect of retarding China’s real economic growth.

关 键 词：阈值协整 检验 城乡收入差距 实际经济增长 科学发展观 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F224