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机构地区:[1]中国地震局地壳应力研究所,北京市德外西三旗100085 [2]中国科学院研究生院计算地球动力学重点实验室,北京100049
出 处:《中国地震》2007年第3期251-258,共8页Earthquake Research in China
基 金:国家自然科学基金重点项目(40234042);地震科学联合基金项目(103016);北京市自然科学基金(8053020)资助
摘 要:应力释放模型在地震活动性研究中多有应用。但无论是简单应力释放模型还是耦合应力释放模型在应用中都存在着一个共同问题,就是地震发生条件概率强度与地震活动性不同步。为解决这一问题,本文对应力释放模型做了进一步修改,在原应力释放模型的计算条件概率强度公式中引入了时间延迟因子,从而初步解决了地震发生条件概率强度与地震活动性之间不协调的矛盾。此外,在利用台湾地区地震资料考察新模型时发现,改进后的新模型比原模型更优,预测地震的效能更高;在发震时刻预测的回顾性检验中,改进后的耦合应力释放模型比原应力释放模型和泊松模型的预测精度有较大提高。The Stress Release Model (SRM) and the Coupled Stress Release Model (CSRM) have been found wide applications in seismicity study. However, it is also found that peaks of earthquake conditional probability intensity often occur before a period of active seismicity. The authors modified the SRM and CSRM in aspect of the relation between seismicity and earthquake probability. The authors assume that the highest seismicity does not occur at a time of the peak of stress, instead, there exists a time delay between the time of the highest stress and the most active seismicity. The modified model is applied to the study of earthquakes in Taiwan. The result shows that the modified models, including the SRM and CSRM, can be applied to smaller scale of time (100 years) and space (~300km). Accuracy of earthquake occurrence time predicted by the modified coupled stress release model is higher than that by the former model and that by the Poisson model in a retrospect test of earthquake prediction.
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