马尔柯夫模型在洪河湿地景观变化研究中的应用  

Study on Honghe wetland Landscape change using Markov Model

作　　者：边延辉[1] 张光辉 包洪福[1] 刘述彬[3] 

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省水利水电勘测设计研究院,哈尔滨150080 [2]黑龙江农垦水务局,哈尔滨150000 [3]黑龙江省农业科学院遥感中心,哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《东北农业大学学报》2008年第3期53-57,共5页Journal of Northeast Agricultural University

摘　　要：在遥感和地理信息系统技术的支持下,利用3S技术并应用MATLAB6.5软件辅助计算,对洪河湿地自然保护区内近40年景观类型进行统计调查、转化分析,并应用马尔科夫模型,建立初始矩阵和转移概率矩阵,对未来景观类型转化情况进行了定量预测。稳定状态时的水域、灌木林、乔木林、沼泽湿地、耕地、荒草地、道路面积将占洪河湿地总面积的0.14%、28.04%、0.69%、62.46%、6.54%、1.79%、0.34%。Based on supporting of remote sense, GIS and MATLAB6.5 software assistant calculation, statistic investigation and conversion analysis of landscape types in recent 40 years in the Honghe wetland are carried out by Markov Model, initial matrix and conversion probability matrix are established and the conversion of landscape types in the future is predicted qiantitatively. The area for water surface, shrub forest, arbor forest, wetland, farmland, waste grass land and road will account for 0.14%, 28.04%, 0.69%, 62.46%, 6.54%, 1.79%, 0.34% of Honghe Natural Reserve respectively in the stable situation.

关 键 词：马尔科夫模型 洪河湿地 景观格局 

分 类 号：S688[农业科学—观赏园艺]