我国双车道公路普通路段路侧事故预测模型研究  

Research of Roadside Accident Prediction Models for Common Segments of Two-lane Roads in China

作　　者：张铁军[1] 唐琤琤[1] 

机构地区：[1]交通部公路科学研究院,北京100088

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2008年第4期147-150,158,共5页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：交通部西部交通建设科技资助项目(200431822333-01)

摘　　要：针对双车道公路路侧事故的各种影响因素,建立适合我国国情的双车道公路路侧事故预测模型,探索双车道公路路侧事故的分布规律。研究中根据我国双车道公路两侧用地情况,把公路划分为普通路段、村庄路段和交叉口路段,并对普通路段进行了路侧事故预测模型研究,主要内容包括普通路段的划分、路侧事故的定义、路侧危险度的划分、模型的结果自检验以及应用检验等等。研究结果表明交通量、货车比例、平曲线用长度加权的弯曲度、所在地域对路侧事故率的高低有较大影响,模型验证结果表明路侧事故预测值和实际值呈现一致性。A roadside accident prediction model was built up based on the analysis of all kinds of factors which influence the traffic safety of two-lane roads, and the accident distributing character was analyzed too.The road discussed were divided into common segments, village segments and intersection segments based on the traits beside the road. The roadside accident prediction models were researched, including the classification of common segments, the definition of roadside accidents, the grading of roadside hazard and the self-checking of the model result.The research result shows that, traffic volume, truck proportion, weight horizontal curve camber, location of roadway segment are the important factors for roadside accident rates. The prediction value is concurrent with actual value through the model validation.

关 键 词：交通工程 路侧事故预测模型 路侧事故 路侧危险度分级 

分 类 号：U491.31[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]