产业集聚效应的系统动力学建模与仿真  

Modeling and Simulation of Agglomeration Effect Using System Dynamics

作　　者：孙晓华[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学经济系,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《科学学与科学技术管理》2008年第4期71-76,共6页Science of Science and Management of S.& T.

基　　金：辽宁省社科基金资助项目(L06BJY027);辽宁省教育厅人文社科项目(2006B032)

摘　　要：从系统动力学视角提出产业集聚效应的基本分析框架,结合集聚效应形成的正反馈特征,分析了人才、技术和资金"流"的因果关系,建立产业集聚效应的系统流图和系统动力学模型,应用Vensim PLE对模型进行了仿真模拟,验证了模型的有效性与应用价值。结果表明,模型对产业集聚效应的实际演化过程具有较高的拟合程度,并能够为区域经济管理提供有效的决策支持。From a system dynamics perspective, the basic analysis frame of industrial cluster effect is studied. By positive feedback of industrial agglomeration effect, the causal loop diagrams of manpower, technology and money are analyzed. Futhermore, a flow chart and system dynamics model are established. Vensim PLE is used to simulate and to test the validation and application value of model. The simulation results show that the model could fit the revolution of practical agglomeration effect, and provide valid supporting for decisions of regional economical management.

关 键 词：产业集聚效应 系统动力学 因果关系图 仿真 

分 类 号：F403.4[经济管理—产业经济]