美国和日本传真天气图上冬季温带气旋预报误差分析  

Analysis on forecast error of extratropical cyclone in winter American and Japanese radiofacsimile weather charts

作　　者：杨亚新[1] 范德新 

机构地区：[1]南通航运职业技术学院航海系,江苏南通226010 [2]宿迁市气象局,江苏宿迁223800

出　　处：《上海海事大学学报》2008年第1期27-31,共5页Journal of Shanghai Maritime University

摘　　要：为给航行船舶及从事海洋气象预报和海洋环境预报的工作者正确使用传真天气图提供参考,利用美国和日本发布的逐日地面天气图,对两国冬季温带气旋的预报误差分别进行统计分析.结果表明:日本24 h温带气旋强度和位置的预报准确率分别为86.5%和41.9%,48 h温带气旋强度和位置的预报准确率分别为70.5%和25.5%;日本24 h温带气旋中心气压、纬度和经度的平均预报误差分别为1.3 hPa,0.8°和1.3,°48 h温带气旋中心气压、纬度和经度的平均预报误差分别为2.0 hPa,1.2°和1.7°.美国24 h温带气旋强度和位置的预报准确率分别为70%和41.8%,48 h温带气旋强度和位置的预报准确率分别为45.7%和24.7%;美国24 h温带气旋中心气压、纬度和经度的平均预报误差分别为2.4 hPa,1.0°和1.6,°48 h温带气旋中心气压、纬度和经度的平均预报误差分别为3.4 hPa,1.3°和2.1°.In order to provide a reference for navigation ships and the professionals engaged in the marine weather or environment forecast to use radiofacsimile weather charts correctly, the forecast errors of the extratropical cyclone are analyzed by using the winter American and Japanese radiofacsimile weather charts. The result indicates as follows： In Japanese weather charts, 24 h forecast accurate rate of the extratropical cyclone on intensity and accurate rate on position are 86.5% and 41.9% and 48 h forecast accurate rate of the extratropical cyclone on intensity and accurate rate on position are 70.5% and 25.5% ; 24 h mean forecast error on centre pressure, latitude and longitude are 1.3 hPa, 0.8° and 1.3° respectively and 48 h mean forecast error on centre pressure, latitude and longitude are 2.0 hPa, 1.2° and 1.7° respectively. In American weather charts, 24 h forecast accurate rate of the extratropical cyclone on intensity and accurate rate on position are 70% and 41.8% and 48 h forecast accurate rate of the extratropical cyclone on intensity and accurate rate on position are 45.7% and 24.7% ; 24 h mean forecast error on centre pressure, latitude and longitude are 2.4 hPa, 1.0° and 1.6° respectively and 48 h mean forecast error on centre pressure, latitude and longitude are 3.4 hPa, 1.3 ° and 2.1 ° respectively.

关 键 词：传真天气图 温带气旋 航海气象 预报误差 

分 类 号：U675.12[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]