复杂电子系统Markov模型及云可靠性评估  

Cloud Reliability Evaluation for Complex Electronic Systems Based on Markov Model

作　　者：汲锡林[1] 罗自强[1] 王建新 

机构地区：[1]解放军理工大学指挥自动化学院,南京210007 [2]中国电子设备系统工程公司研究所,北京100039

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（信息科学版）》2008年第2期116-121,共6页Journal of Jilin University（Information Science Edition）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(60375016;60496323);国家973重点基础研究发展规划项目(2004CB719401)

摘　　要：电子系统结构的复杂性,故障形式的多样性,导致可靠性评估的不确定性,为了使可靠性度量具有更高的可信度,针对可靠性评估问题,发展和深化了云理论。定义了云集和云数等概念,给出了正态云数的运算算法;分析了可修表决系统的M arkov模型,并给出求系统可靠性指标的方法;阐述了系统可靠性的语言值定性评价,通过正态云数建立了定量的云可靠性评估模型,反映M arkov模型中参数的不确定性。同时给出云可靠度在一定置信水平下转换为系统定性评价的方法,并通过表决系统的计算实例验证了云可靠度评估方法的可信度。The complex structure of electronic systems and the diversity of faults result in the uncertainties of system reliability evaluation. Thus we should renovate the traditional ideals on reliability. Cloud theory was developed, the concepts of cloud sets and cloud numbers were defined, and particularly the operation arithmetic among normal cloud numbers were presented. We analyze the Markov model of repairable decision-making system and give an approach to get the indices of system reliability. We set forth the qualitative evaluation of system reli- ability in natural language. We construct a Markov model for quantitative system reliability evaluation based on cloud numbers which reflect the parameters＇ uncertainties. Cloud reliability can be translated to the qualitative evaluation of system at certain confidence level through a novel approach. An example is promoted for repairable decision-making system.

关 键 词：云模型 MARKOV模型 可靠性 不确定性 

分 类 号：TN6[电子电信—电路与系统] TB114[理学—概率论与数理统计]