中国区域金融发展差异的度量与变动趋势分析  

A Study on the Measurement and Change Tendency of Disparities of Regional Financial Development in China

作　　者：李敬[1] 冉光和[1] 孙晓铎[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学贸易与行政学院,重庆400044

出　　处：《当代财经》2008年第3期34-40,共7页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(07CJY035)

摘　　要：运用基尼系数(GINI)、Theil指标(GE1)和对数离差均值(GE0)对1978-2004年中国金融发展的省际差异、东中西部金融发展差异和城乡金融发展差异进行全面度量,以及运用R/S分析方法对区域金融发展差异的长期变动趋势进行计量分析的结果表明:中国区域金融发展的差异主要是城乡差异,处于第二位的是东部地区内部的金融发展差异,然后是省际间金融发展差异;中部地区和西部地区金融发展差异大致相当,而东中西部区域间金融发展差异是最小的;中国区域金融发展差异的Hurst指数都接近于1,区域间金融发展差异在未来可能会继续扩大,而东部地区内部和东中西部区域间金融发展差异还可能呈现加速扩张的态势。Thispaper measures the disparities of regional financial development between provinces, and between eastern, middle and western regions, and between the cities and countryside in China from 1978 to 2004 , using the index of GINI, GEl and GE0, and then analyzes the long-term change tendency in disparities of regional finance development based the R/S method. The findings indicate that the disparities of regional finance development between the cities and countryside is the greatest, followed by the internal disparities in the eastern areas. Those between provinces; come third. It is found that the central area and the western area are about the same while the smallest disparity appears between the eastern, the central and the western regions of China. The R/S analysis results also indicate that the disparities of regional financial development will continue to widen in the future.

关 键 词：区域金融发展 差异 度量 变动趋势 

分 类 号：F832.1[经济管理—金融学]