黄河下游夹河滩站洪水最大含沙量预报研究  

Research on the forecast of maximum sediment concentration of floods at Jiahetan station in the Lower Yellow River

作　　者：金双彦[1] 秦毅[2] 李雪梅[3] 徐建华[3] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水资源环境学院,江苏南京210098 [2]西安理工大学水利水电学院,陕西西安710048 [3]黄河水利委员会水文局,河南郑州450004

出　　处：《泥沙研究》2008年第2期58-61,共4页Journal of Sediment Research

基　　金：黄委项目(黄规计[2005]105号);国家自然科学基金重点项目(50239050);国家自然科学基金主任基金项目(50249024)

摘　　要：黄河下游花园口至夹河滩河段,区间加水加沙很少,夹河滩洪水含沙量的大小,主要受上游来水含沙量、来沙系数和本站洪峰流量的影响。本文采用相关分析和人工神经网络模型建立了夹河滩洪水最大含沙量预报方案和模型。运用该方案和模型对"04.8"洪水夹河滩最大含沙量进行了试预报,预报值为250kg/m3,比实测值270kg/m3偏小7.4%。这是黄河下游首次发布洪水最大含沙量试预报,拉开了黄河下游洪水含沙量预报的序幕。In the section from Huayuankou to Jiahetan in the Lower Yellow River,the maximum sediment concentration at Jiahetan station is mainly affected by the incoming floods from Huayuankou station.The methods of correlation analysis and Artificial Neural Networks are used to develope a model to calculate the maximum sediment concentration of floods at Jiahetan station in this paper.The model is then used to forecast the maximum sediment concentration of flood in August 2004 at Jiahetan.The calculated value is 250kg/m^3,which is 7.4% less than the observation value of 270kg/m^3.It is expected that the model could be a basis of the forecast of the maximum sediment comentration of floods in the lower Yellow River.

关 键 词：最大含沙量 试预报 “04.8”洪水 相关分析 人工神经网络模型 夹河滩 

分 类 号：TV143.6[水利工程—水力学及河流动力学]