基于区间分析的建设项目经济评估方法比较  

Comparison of Interval-Based Economic Evaluation Methods for Construction Projects

作　　者：肖峻[1] 林立鹏[1] 何丽薇[2] 方国雄 

机构地区：[1]天津大学电力系统仿真控制教育部重点实验室,天津300072 [2]天津电气传动设计研究所,天津300180 [3]福建厦门电业局,厦门361012

出　　处：《天津大学学报》2008年第4期401-407,共7页Journal of Tianjin University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：天津市科技攻关计划重大项目(043184711)

摘　　要：为解决项目建设中的不确定性经济评估问题,对区间净现值(INPV)法、区间动态投资回收期(IPT)法及区间内部收益率(IIRR)法等3种项目经济评估方法进行了比较.给出了各区间评估方法的基本概念和评估准则,总结了其优缺点;并对这3种方法进行了比较.研究表明,IPT法、INPV法、IIRR法对项目经济评估的结果基本相同,都可以有效地处理经济评估中的不确定性,每种方法能够给出项目某一方面的经济指标,可从一定侧面反映项目的经济可行性以及项目面临的经济风险.为此,对其进行了风险计算,各方法计算所得项目风险排序从小到大为IPT、INPV、IIRR.因此,保守的决策者优先采用的方法顺序为IIRR法、INPV法、IPT法;大胆的决策者采用的方法顺序为IPT法、INPV法、IIRR法.For solving the uncertainty problem of construction projects in economic evaluation, three interval-based economic evaluation methods for construction projects, including interval net present value （ INPV ） method, interval dynamic payback period （ IPT ）method, interval internal rate of return （ IIRR ）method, were compared. Evaluation criteria and basic concepts of interval-based economic evaluation methods were given. While advantages and disadvantages of the methods were described in detail. Moreover, detailed comparison of every method suggests that evaluation results of every method are almost the same. Each method proposed not only deals with uncertainties in economic evaluation but also presents a certain economic index, which reflects the economical feasibility and the risk of the project from certain aspect. Under both certain and uncertain life periods, the risk of IIRR method is the highest, followed by INPV; and the risk of IPT is the lowest. A conservative decision-maker＇s priority is IIRR, INPV and IPT; while an optimistic decision-maker＇s priority is IPT, INPV and IIRR.

关 键 词：经济评估 建设项目 区间净现值(INPV) 区间动态投资回收期(IPT) 区间内部收益率(IIRR) 风险 

分 类 号：F224.5[经济管理—国民经济]