中国煤炭政策变迁与煤炭需求：1979-2005  

Empirical analysis of Chinese coal policy and coal demand:1979—2005

作　　者：武晓明[1] 王思薇[1] 李永清[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安科技大学管理学院

出　　处：《西安科技大学学报》2008年第1期150-154,共5页Journal of Xi’an University of Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(90410014)

摘　　要：1979—2005年中国煤炭需求增长的过程,伴随着煤炭政策的变迁。运用单位根、协整检验、误差修正模型(ECM)、Chow检验等实证方法分析了1979—2005年煤炭政策与煤炭需求的关系。结果表明,我国煤炭需求受消费导向政策、煤炭价格政策、产业结构调整政策和提高能源利用效率政策等的影响,其中产业结构变动、能源效率改进降低了煤炭消耗。1998年前后,中国煤炭需求函数发生显著变化,煤炭价格政策逐渐发挥作用,同时GDP增长比以前更大程度上刺激了煤炭需求的增长。In 1979-2005, Chinese coal demand increased while coal policy changed at the same time. This article analyzes relations between coal policy and coal demand in 1979-2005 through method such as unit root test, cointegration test, error correction model and chow breakpoint empirical test. The result indicated that, the coal demand is influenced by coal policy such as consumption guide policy, price policy, industrial structure change and energy efficiency improvement policy. And industrial structure change and energy efficiency improvement reduced the coal consumption. Fore and after 1998, coal demand changed dramatically. After 1998, coal price policy worked gradually and the growth of GDP greatly stimulated the growth of coal demand.

关 键 词：煤炭需求 煤炭政策 ECM模型 CHOW检验 

分 类 号：F402.7[经济管理—产业经济]