中国年极端降水事件的时空分布特征  

Temporal and Spatial Characteristic of Extreme Precipitation Event in China

作　　者：杨金虎[1] 江志红[2] 王鹏祥[1] 陈彦山[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室 [2]南京信息工程大学,南京210044

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2008年第1期75-83,共9页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目40375032、40675043;干旱气象科学研究基金项目IAM200609;成都高原气象科学研究基金项目LPM2007002

摘　　要：基于中国1955-2004年314个台站逐日降水资料，根据百分位值方法定义了不同台站的极端降水阈值，进而对中国年极端降水事件的时空特征进行了探讨分析。结果表明：江淮北部、湖南、四川西南部及西藏和新疆西部地区与中国其他区域呈反向变化特征，是中国年极端降水事件的主要空间异常模态；中国年极端降水事件的时间变化存在明显的区域性差异，东北、西北东部、华北表现为减少趋势，其中东北和华北发生了突变，而西北西部、长江中下游、华南及青藏高原表现为增加趋势，其中西北西部、长江中下游发生了突变；中国各分区年极端降水事件的周期振荡不完全一致；中国年极端降水事件与年降水量之间存在较好的相关性，从季节来看，夏季极端降水事件与年降水量的相关性最好。Based on 314 stations daily precipitation data from 1955 to 2004 in China, According percentile method the extreme precipitation threshold value were defined in different stations, temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation events （EPE） were studied. The results showed that the out-of phase change characteristic between north of Changjiang-Huaihe, Hunan, southwest Sichuan, west of Tibet, Xinjiang and other regions of China is main anomaly mode of EPE. It is found that the trend change of EPE showed remarkable regional difference, it showed decreasing trend in Northeast China, eastern Northwest China and North China, thereinto it also occurred sudden change in Northeast China and North China, however it showed increasing trend in western Northwest China, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, South China and the Tibetan Plateau, thereinto it also occurred sudden change in western Northwest China, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Tibetan plateau. It is proved that periodic oscillation of EPE was not consistent. It is also found that there were good the same term correlation between EPE and precipitation, from the season to see, the correlation is the best in summer.

关 键 词：中国 极端降水事件 时空特征 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]