用太阳黑子和自相关因子超长期预测棉铃虫的发生趋势  

Ultralong term Prediction of the Occurrence Trend of Helicoverpa armigera by Sunspot and Autocorrela ted Factors.

作　　者：黄荣华 叶正襄 汤建国 

机构地区：[1]江西省农科院植保所 [2]江西省彭泽县植保站

出　　处：《植物保护》1997年第5期7-10,共4页Plant Protection

基　　金：江西省青年科学基金

摘　　要：以太阳黑子和自相关因子为预测因子，采用逐步回归分析方法，建立了赣北棉铃虫发生趋势的超长期预测模型。该模型１９６６～１９９１年的历史符合率达８０．７７％，１９９２～１９９６年的预报确率达８０％。所建模型可以提前２ａ发出预报，据此对１９９７和１９９８年赣北棉铃虫的发生趋势进行了预测。The ultralong term prediction model of the occurrence trend of Helicoverpa armigera in Northern Jiangxi was established by stepwise regression analysis with the sunspot and autocorrelated factors as forecast factors. The historical coincident rate of the model reached 80 77% during 1966-1991, and its forecasting accuracy reached 80% during 1992-1996, respectively. It could be send out the forecast informations two years ahead based on the model. The occurrence trend of H. armigera were predicted in Northern Jiangxi in 1997 and 1998.

关 键 词：棉铃虫 超长期预测 发生趋势 

分 类 号：S435.622.9[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治] S431.2[农业科学—植物保护]