水资源优化配置多目标风险分析方法研究  

Multi-objective risk assessment on water resources optimal deployment

作　　者：顾文权[1] 邵东国[1] 黄显峰[1] 代涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《水利学报》2008年第3期339-345,共7页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973计划)(2003CB415206);湖北省自然科学基金重大项目(2007ABD007)

摘　　要：在分析水资源配置风险内涵及其可能存在风险因素的基础上,识别了水资源优化配置的主要风险因子,建立了水资源优化配置多目标风险分析模型,提出了基于随机模拟技术的水资源优化配置多目标风险评估方法,通过该方法对南水北调中线调水后汉江中下游地区水资源配置风险值的分析,得出引江济汉补偿工程可显著提升南水北调中线调水后汉江中下游地区枯水年、平水年水资源配置方案的综合效益,降低中线调水对汉江中下游地区缺水等不利影响的风险。Based on the connotation of deployment risk of water resources and the analysis on possible risk factors the major risk factors were identified. The model for multi-objective risk assessment on water resources optimal deployment based on stochastic simulation was proposed. The model was applied to analyze the water resources deployment risk of the downstream region of Hanjiang River after the South-to-North Water Transfer Project was put into operation. The result shows that the implementation of the compensative water diversion project from Changjiang River to Hanjiang River can obviously elevate the comprehensive benefit of the water resources deployment in this region during dry years or ordinary years and reduce the risk of disadvantage effects.

关 键 词：水资源优化配置 多目标风险分析 随机模拟技术 南水北调中线 汉江中下游 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源] X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程]