CO2倍增对我国东部极端降水的影响  

Effect of CO_2 Doubling on Extreme Precipitation in Eastern China

作　　者：邹用昌 杨修群[2] 潘志祥 孙旭光[2] 房佳蓓[2] 廖玉芳 

机构地区：[1]湖南省气象局,长沙410007 [2]南京大学灾害性天气气候研究所,南京210003

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2008年第2期84-89,共6页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2004CB418303);中国气象局气象新技术推广项目(CMATG2007M39);湖南省气象局重点科研项目(200601)资助

摘　　要：利用GFDL-CM2.1耦合模式控制试验和CO2增长试验逐日降水输出结果,评估了CO2浓度加倍对我国极端降水变化的影响。结果表明:CO2浓度加倍导致我国东部地区年极端降水的强度增强、降水量显著增多及降水频次显著增加(除华北南部外);CO2浓度加倍对我国春夏季极端降水影响较大,导致东部多数地区春夏季极端降水频次增加,强度增强;而CO2浓度加倍导致华北南部和长江中下游春夏季雨日减少以及小雨、中雨减少,从而导致年总降水量减少。Outputs of control experiment and CO2 increasing experiment from GFDL-CM2.1 coupled model were used to evaluate the effect of CO2 doubling on the changes in extreme precipitation in China. The results show that CO2 doubling would cause a prominent increase of annual extreme precipitation amount and precipitation intensity in eastern China, and a prominent increase of annual extreme precipitation frequency except in the south part of North China. Furthermore, CO2 doubling would bring about severe influence on the distribution of extreme precipitation in spring and summer, leading to the increases of extreme precipitation amount and precipitation intensity, and extreme precipitation frequency in the most parts of eastern China. However, the annual precipitation in the south part of North China and in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River both decreased, due to the decrease of wet days in spring and summer as well as the decreases of light rain and moderate rain.

关 键 词：极端降水 CO2浓度加倍的影响 气候变化 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]