气候变暖对宁夏引黄灌区春小麦生产的影响  

Impact of Climate Change on Spring Wheat Yield in Yellow River Irrigation Region of Ningxia

作　　者：刘玉兰[1] 张晓煜[1] 刘娟 亢艳莉[1] 

机构地区：[1]宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室,银川750002 [2]银川市气象局,银川750002

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2008年第2期90-94,共5页Climate Change Research

基　　金：科技部公益性基金项目“宁夏气候对全球气候变化的响应及其机制”(2004DIB3J121);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF2007-27);中英气候变化双边合作研究项目(2001-BA611B-04-06-01)资助

摘　　要：对宁夏引黄灌区10个观测站1961—2004年春小麦生长发育期(3月上旬至7月上旬)的气温进行分析,结果表明:宁夏引黄灌区春小麦生长期的气候明显变暖。t检验结果表明,春小麦生长发育期日平均气温的突变发生在1989年,突变后的气温比突变前升高了0.7℃。在春小麦生长发育各阶段,气温都有所升高,但没有超出春小麦生长发育的适宜温度范围。引黄灌区春小麦的温度敏感系数在3月中旬至4月上旬及5月上旬至6月上旬为正值,这两个时段的气候变暖有利于春小麦生产;6月中旬至7月上旬及4月中下旬温度敏感系数为负值,这两个时段的气候变暖不利于春小麦生产。总体而言,气候变暖对春小麦单产的贡献为-2.6%。Temperatures from early March to early July in 1961-2004, at 10 stations in the Yellow River irrigation region of Ningxia were analyzed. The results show that the temperature during the growing season of spring wheat increased obviously. The t-test indicates that the temperature abrupt change occurred in 1989 with a rise of 0.7 ℃. Over various phenological stages of spring wheat, the temperature increased, but it didn＇t exceed the suitable range. The temperature-sensitive index of spring wheat was positive from middle March to early April and from May to early June, therefore the climate warming over these periods was favorable to wheat growth. The temperature- sensitive index was negative from middle June to early July and from middle to late April, thus the climate warming over these periods was unfavorable to wheat growth. Overally, the contribution of climate warming to wheat yield was -2.6%.

关 键 词：引黄灌区 宁夏 气候变暖 春小麦 

分 类 号：S512.12[农业科学—作物学]