商品流通与产业升级的关系研究:理论与实证  

The Relationship between Merchandise Circulation and Industrial Promotion:Theoretical and Positive Analysis

作　　者：刘宁[1] 杨以文[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学国际经贸学院,江苏南京210003

出　　处：《南京财经大学学报》2007年第5期17-22,共6页Journal of Nanjing University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目"基于流通创新的现代生产者服务体系构建研究"的阶段性成果;项目编号:70673032

摘　　要：商品流通与产业升级是两个密切联系的概念,商品流通对产业升级的影响主要是通过对社会财富的增量与存量调整来实现的。本文通过建立基于新兴古典经济学的理论模型,分析商品流通的发展所引起的交易效率的提高对产业升级的影响,然后利用我国的经验数据对两者进行协整分析、误差修正模型检验和因果关系检验。结果表明:我国的商品流通与产业升级之间存在长、短期稳定的正向关系,通过G ranger因果关系检验,我国的商品流通的发展是产业升级的G ranger原因,而反之却不成立。Merchandise circulation and industrial upgrade are two concepts that have close connection. Merchandise circulation has the effect on industrial upgrade mainly is to adjust to the increase and the storage quantities of the public wealth. This paper sets up a model which is based on the theory of new Classical Economics, and analyzed the development of merchandise circulation that causes the enhancement of the transaction efficiency which promotes to industrial upgrade, and then the paper analyzed the effect of merchandise circulation on industrial promotion by utilizing the co-integration and error correction model. Empirical results show that there was a stable positive equilibrium relationship between merchandise circulation and industrial promotion in the long or short run. Through the Granger causality test, it was found that the development of merchandise circulation was the reason for industrial upgrade, and conversely, the conclusion wasn＇t true.

关 键 词：流通 产业升级 流通效率 协整分析 

分 类 号：F24[经济管理—劳动经济]