黄河河龙区间径流多年变化特征及动态预测  

Analysis of the Multi-year Changing Characteristics for Runoff and its Dynamic Prediction in the Helong Reach of Middle Yellow River

作　　者：张建兴[1] 马孝义[1] 赵文举[1] 屈金娜[1] 郝晶晶[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《水力发电》2008年第3期24-27,共4页Water Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50479052);国家科技支撑计划课题(2006BAD11B04);西北农林科技大学青年学术骨干计划资助课题

摘　　要：根据黄河中游河口镇—龙门区间龙门水文站的径流量资料,选取径流多种参数和统计方法分析其多年变化特征。结果表明:区间径流年际变化大,丰水时段历时较短,枯水时段历时很长;45年来,区间年径流存在一个15～16年的显著的周期性变化;区间年径流存在非常显著的减少趋势。同时建立了区间径流的预测模型,在进行拟合时,预测结果的相对误差大都在±20%以下,并对区间2001～2030的年径流量做了分析预测。The parameters such as variation coefficient of runoff.the standard of high-low circumstance and the methods such as accumulative fiher,Kendall＇s rank verification were used to analyze the changing characteristics of runoff over Helong reach based on the datas of Longmen station. The results showed that： The multi-year extreme ratio of runoff was 6.97, the variation coefficient was 0.43, revealed that multi-year changed big, and it also had a 15-16 years changing periodicity; As to the long-term distribution inthe runoff, the high-low period was short （only 1-4 years）, the low-flow period was long（11 years）;The volume of runoff reduced obviously,especially in 1990s.The prediction models of runoff were established at last,the error of prediction may be controlled within 20%when checking the models,so these models may be applied to predict the future runoff quantitatively.

关 键 词：径流 变化特征 动态预测 区间径流 黄河中游河段 

分 类 号：TV121.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]